2006

Happy New Years everyone. I'm going out of town for a couple days to celebrate and will be back on Monday.

Fun fact of the day

Joe Randa is over two years older than Jerome Bettis. Think about that.

The Hall of Fame

It's that time of year again, and the guys at ESPN are going crazy with their who deserves to be in the Hall columns. Since this is a Pirate blog, I'll stick to the Pirate candidates.

First up is Bert Blyleven. For years lots of people have been making the case for ol' Rik Aalbert Blyleven. Jim Caple does the chore for ESPN this year. The case really makes itself, 287 wins (everyone with more is in the Hall except Tommy John), 60 shutouts, 3,701 strikeouts (behind Nolan Ryan, Steve Carlton, Roger Clemens, and Randy Johnson), and maybe Chris Berman's best nickname ever, Bert "Be home Bly-eleven" (of course, if it encouraged him to keep going with the nicknames, that's negative points). The problem is 250 losses and a 22 year career that helped make those stats look so impressive (though a high loss total and a looooong career didn't count against Nolan Ryan). There's also the nagging feeling that he was never a true ace, as illustrated by Gene Collier a couple weeks back when he said:

Here's my formula. If I'm managing a decent club that's going into Pittsburgh for a weekend series in July of 1979 and the Pirates are sending Bert Blyleven, John Candelaria and Bruce Kison to the mound, is there a pitcher among them that I think I might not be able to beat? Yes, and it's Candelaria, who is not a Hall of Famer.

I'd be shocked if Bert gets in, mostly on the "Hall of Fame, not Hall of Very Good" philosophy. Blyleven was very good, though I'm not sure if enough people will qualify him as an all-time great to get enough votes to get in.

Next up are the sluggers. I'm not so much interested in who the writers ARE making cases for, but instead in who they AREN'T. Sean McAdam makes his case for Jim Rice, who a lot of people believe would be in already if he wasn't such a jerk to the media. Rice gets a lot of attention for his '75-'86 stretch in which he lead the American League in 12 different categories over those 12 years. Phil Rogers argues for Andre Dawson, that Dawson should be in if Kirby Puckett, Tony Perez, Gary Carter, Ryne Sandberg, and Ozzie Smith are. Who isn't getting a national case made for him? Dave Parker(though he is getting one made for him on Pirates.com). I realize his involvement in the drug trials probably make him a taboo for voters, but he's managed to stay on the ballot for quite a while and he measures up pretty favorably to Rice and Dawson. His career batting average of .290 is smack in between Dawson's .279 and Rice's .298, while his career OPS of .810 is higher than Dawson's .806 and close to Rice's .854. He trails in homers and RBIs (which always seem to count for more than they should with the voters) but also had a cannon for an arm and using Baseball Reference's range factor was an above average fielder his entire career and won three Gold Gloves (Dawson won 8, Rice won zero). He won an MVP, just like the other two, and ended up with more career MVP votes than either of them. He won two batting titles, to zero for the other two combined. He won two World Series ('79 Pirates, '89 A's) while the other two won none. In fact, which player is the third most similar batter to Dawson and the sixth most similar batter to Rice (using the Baseball Reference comparison system)? Dave Parker.

Keep in mind that I'm not making a case against Rice and Dawson or a case for Parker. And I know what a stain the drug trials put on both baseball and Parker. I'm simply saying that if the other two deserve serious consideration for the Hall, so does the Parker.

More housekeeping

One of the things I meant to do last week when I updated the links, but completely spaced on, was putting the site feed on the main page. Thanks to a reminder from Rowdy in the comments, it's now under my e-mail for anyone that's interested.

A right fielder

After I heard Byrnes signed with Arizona yesterday, I started thinking about who else would be available to the Bucs so that they could avoid putting Craig Wilson in right field, something they appear desperate to do. It didn't take long before one named popped into my head, Sammy Sosa. My dad came home from work and told me that Greg Brown was on Paul Alexander's show last night had speculated similarly. He'll be cheap come spring training when no one wants to sign a player widely viewed as a pariah and a fraud. He'll be a big name that our common senseless front office will probably assume will sell tickets, and based on the fact that he's a Latin American baseball player that wears #21, he's probably a big Roberto Clemente fan and might not be averse patrolling his right field grass in Pittsburgh, especially if we're one of the few teams offering him a contract.

Of course, he's washed up, he's a fraud, he's been a terrible teammate the last couple years, and if his numbers come anywhere close to what they were last year in Baltimore (.221/.295/.376 with 14 homers and 45 RBIs in 380 ABs) he'll be run out of town quicker than Derek Bell. If the opportunity presents itself, I'll be surprised if that stops Dave Littlefield.

Perception

So, after my Randa post yesterday, I started seriously wondering if I'm too negative about everything the Pirates do. I mean here I was at like 2 saying signing Randa is a good idea for $1-2 million and then exactly three hours later (look at the timestamps) saying signing him was a waste of money for $4 million. How much is that extra couple million in the baseball world, really? So I wondered, am I too negative? Has thirteen losing years made me so cynical that I can't look at ANYthing the Pirates do and think it's a good move? Well, the truth is I probably am, but even after a more objective look I'm not changing my mind about this. Just a year ago, Kevin McClatchy was chastising other owners for paying ridiculous amounts of money for middling starting pitching. A year later his own ballclub is dishing out somewhere in the neighborhood of $6.25 million for two guys that are a combined 77 years old and don't offer much more than anyone on the roster already did. Talk about drinking the funny water.

The thing that scares me the most right now is Littlefield and Tracy's vision of this ballteam. Going into the offseason, they had one of those "uncompromising visions of the future" that you hear about whenever the Wachowski brothers make a movie, or you see on the cover of any George Orwell book. Namely, they viewed a team that would have a starting lineup without Brad Eldred, Freddy Sanchez, or Craig Wilson in it. Eldred and Wilson because they strike out a lot and Sanchez because he doesn't have the power you want from a corner infielder. Eldred is understandable, he's never really played a full season at any level in the minors since his power stroke appeared and a full season at Indy would do him a lot of good. Wilson and Sanchez are different, namely because they're serviceable major leaguers and whoever you replace them with would have to be better than them. If the Bucs pulled that off, it would be understandable. Both Sanchez and Wilson have their flaws, and it's certain that neither one is an All-Star. They tried to overpay Mueller, who probably would've been better than Sanchez for a year. They supposedly tried to trade for guys like Glaus and Bradley who would've helped this team out a TON. They failed on all fronts. The problem is that instead of admitting there's no one left and staying in house with guys that are better than anyone available, they're still plugging along with their vision of the team. Enter Joe Randa, who certainly won't be that much better than Freddy Sanchez next year, yet we've decided to give a 186% raise to. And what did Jim Tracy say about Joe Randa in today's PG?

"In a perfect scenario, you'd have Joe hitting sixth," Tracy said. "But if it's not perfect, I could see him hitting fifth, somehow behind Casey and Jason Bay. This is a guy who knows how to keep the offense moving, hit to all fields."

Let's see here, hitting fifth behind Casey and Jason Bay. That's interesting, no mention of Jody Gerut or Craig Wilson at all. Is Littlefield planning some blockbuster move to pick up a right fielder? Maybe he is, maybe he'll pull a trade that will shock and amaze me and put everything into place and make me feel stupid for everything I've said this offseason, but that's doubtful. No one's left and we'd have heard something by now. So who's playing right field next year? Not Eric Byrnes, he's signing with Arizona.

Even with Byrnes gone, I'd be willing to bet it's someone who isn't currently on the roster. Why? Because chances are quite good we're going to be a losing baseball team next year. You know it, I know it, Jim Tracy knows it, Dave Littlefield knows it. I also have a suspicion that Littlefield also knows that the only way he's getting fired is fan outrage. It was the only thing that got Bonifay fired, after he dumped $50 million or so down the drain on that terrible 2001 roster. The Nuttings don't give two shits about what anyone does with this team so long as it's under budget and I don't think McClatchy knows good baseball people from his ass from a hole in the ground. Littlefield's perception is that most Pirates fans will be more happy losing with Sean Casey at first base, Joe Randa at third base, and someone else in right field. Craig Wilson is the convienent target because he strikes out a lot, on-base percentage and OPS be damned. The problem here is similar to the Ty Wigginton problem. He's not an everyday player, he's a 4 day a week player. Since he's not an every day player he's viewed as being useless. Instead of working on replacing him, we should be working on a platoon partner more reliable than the most brittle man alive, Jody Gerut. It's true that when you strike out a ton, you inevitably strike out in key situations, and that's what makes him an easy target for management, while his rally-starting walks and HBPs (which despite what Jim Tracy may tell you, are just as good as singles)get ignored. My mom jumped around the house cheering that Joe Randa was back last night because he's "cute" and a "hard-worker." Most of Pittsburgh did the same when Sean Casey got traded here because he's from here and he's a great guy. The truth is, I feel bad when I write things like that about those two because I do think that Casey genuinely is a good guy and I really did like Randa a lot in '97 and I wanted to see him back here in the right role in 2006. The problem is that instead of building a real baseball team, good guys like Randa and Casey are being used as tools in the perception game that is constantly being played by our front office, and I'm sick of it.

EDITS (3:42 PM): I edited this a bunch to add some more Craig Wilson stuff in the last paragraph, to fix a bunch of grammatical mistakes, and to make it flow better. Nothing major though, just a heads up.

You ever dance with the devil in the pale moonlight?

I said in the post directly below that Joe Randa would be a good signing at a reasonable price (>$2 million) to back up Freddy Sanchez. This afternoon we signed him to a one year, $4 million deal to start at third. That's not reasonable, that's not as a backup, and that's not a good idea.

Coming off of a .287/.343/.408 year in KC, he signed a one year, $2.15 million deal with the Reds last year. Playing in the launching pad of Great American Ballpark he put up some good .289/.356/.491 numbers in his first 332 ABs. He was traded to San Diego, and the giant recesses of Petco where in his last 223 ABs he went .256/.303/.395. PNC is somewhere in between those two parks, so I would guess his final numbers are a good approximation of what he would've done in a full season in Pittsburgh.

The question is, what exactly did Randa do earn a $2.85 million (EDIT: $1.85 million, I'm either an idiot that can't subtract or I just can't type, I'm not sure which) raise from last year? His '05 numbers, which were somewhat aided by the GAB in Cincy, were NOT that much better than his '04 numbers, and at Randa's age guys don't get better. What is it that gives Littlefield or Tracy the idea that a guy who put up a combined .276/.335/.452 year will be considerably better at the age of 36 than Freddy Sanchez (.291/.336/.400 last year in his first full big league season, with increased power as the season progressed) will be at the age of 28? Are we the type of team that can afford a 36 year old, $4 million backup at third base, which is what I would assume Randa will be reduced to by June?

Don't get me wrong, I love the Joker. He was one of my favorite players from that $9 million miracle team from 1997. I was shocked we left him unprotected as long as we did in the expansion draft that offseason, and at that point in time it was a huge mistake. He seems like he's a great guy and having a veteran presence like him around can't hurt. I just can't fathom paying him in the neighborhood of $4 million for next year, not when he's an distant afterthought to every team that wanted to sign Mueller. I mean his name never even came up when the Bill Mueller derby was taking place. Who were we bidding against that we drove his price up that high? I didn't hear that anyone except us was interested.

This is frustrating. Next stop on the frustration train: hello Eric Byrnes, good bye Craig Wilson.

The Third Base Front

In today's Q&A Dejan mentions that he thinks Corey Koskie or Eric Hinske may be a viable trade solution to the Pirates third base question (since the Jays now have way more third basemen than a baseball team needs). He cites the fact that they are both left handed and both good with the glove as things that might make them attractive to the Pirates. I don't think either of these is much of a solution. Koskie isn't getting any younger (33 next year) and he had quite a down year last year (.249/.337/.398). Add to that the fact that he's owed over $11 million in the next two years and we'd have to trade for him, and I'd vote for staying away. Hinske, on the other hand, has never come close to duplicating his .845 OPS Rookie of the Year 2002 season. He can't be as good with the glove as Dejan suggests because he got moved from third to first last year, and that always happens for a reason. A quick glace at his fielding stats shows that in two of his three years at third he had below average fielding percentage and in all three years he was below the league average in range factor. Again, his offense isn't anything particularly special and I can't see anything that would justify trading for him.

On the positive side, the ESPN rumor mill reports, via Jerry Crasnick, that the Pirates are close to signing Joe Randa (link is Insider only). Going out on a limb and assuming Randa would be signed fairly cheaply (he made $2.15 million with the Reds and Padres last year and didn't do much to justify making any more than that) to back up Freddy Sanchez, this is probably the best move we could make at this point in the offseason at third base, adding a cheap, veteran to the clubhouse to stabilize things if something doesn't work out. Of course, the Insider link suggests Randa would be used to start at third and Sanchez would move into a utility role. This would be stupid and maddening, and the Pirates would never do anything like that... right?

Disappointing

It's December 27th, Troy Glaus has just been traded, and Dave Littlefield is sitting in his office with about $13 million of the $15 million he was told he could spend still unspent. Are the Pirates better than last year at this point? Probably. Maybe. If. Probably because they were pitiful last year and we've jettisoned some deadweight from that team. Maybe if the young pitching can reach it's potential for once. If guys like Sean Casey and Kip Wells can stay healthy and have bounceback years. Will the Pirates compete next year? Maybe, but probably not. If Casey returns to 2004 form AND Bay keeps getting better AND Jack Wilson bounces back AND Zach Duke and Paul Maholm continue as young Tom Glavines AND Oliver Perez turns back into Randy Johnson AND Kip Wells pull his head out of his ass AND the NL Central has a down year, maybe we can compete. When you consider everything Littlefield has done for a net of about $2 million this offseason, it isn't bad. We turned Dave Williams into Sean Casey, an acceptable risk given that Josh Fogg and Mark Redman won't be paid by the Pirates next year. The more I look at Roberto Hernandez, the more I think the signing wasn't as bad as I originally thought.

The problem is that it isn't enough. You could argue that Jason Bay, in his second full season, was easily one of the five best hitters in the National League next year. The problem in 2005 was that no one protected him, and no one in front of him got on base. Sean Casey could get on base for him, but he certainly can't bat in front of him (do you want Sean Casey batting 2nd or 3rd? Neither do I) and doesn't offer much protection behind him unless he's healthy all year, something he probably won't be. Craig Wilson is one of those guys like Trot Nixon or Kevin Millar that makes a great extra cog in the offense when you have Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz to carry the offensive load. He's not that protection even when healthy. The Pirates were presented with opportunites this offseason to fill either one of the two major voids in their Jason Bay-centric offense, and maybe both. They didn't do either.

The first opportunity was Milton Bradley, a guy that in all likelihood would have done everything we wanted Matt Lawton to do last year. Leadoff, get one base 35-40% of the time, play decent outfield, hit ~20 homers. Hell, out of the limelight of LA and in Pittsburgh with a manager he must've gotten along with (because we would have never pursued him if they didn't get along) he might've been even better. Instead, we focused on Bill Mueller, got used badly by Mueller to get the deal he wanted from LA, and watched Bradley go to Oakland for nothing particularly special (it's likely we could've gotten him for Marte and a minor leaguer). OK, we thought to ourselves. Freddy Sanchez will probably make a pretty decent #2 hitter and maybe Chris Duffy will be better than we think in the leadoff spot.

The second opportunity was Troy Glaus. Apparently Dave Littlefield was interested. Apparently, that's bullshit, I say. The trade isn't final yet, but it looks like he's going to Toronto for Orlando Hudson, Miguel Batista, and a minor leaguer. If Dave Littlefield was interested, we certainly could've topped that offer. As Charlie suggests, if Hudson and Batista got it done, Jose Castillo and Salomon Torres would have almost certainly got the deal done. Castillo is essentiall a younger version of Hudson. Torres is a year younger and probably a little better as a reliever than Batista. Sure, everyone sees a ton of potential in Castillo, but Freddy Sanchez is certainly capable of handling second base and it would appear, at least to me, that Sanchez/Glaus is a better combination than Sanchez/Castillo. I mean Glaus kills the ball. In his last three healthy seasons he's hit 41, 30, and 37 homers and slugged .531, .453, and .522. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe Glaus is more banged up than we know, maybe the spacious left field at PNC would kill his power stats, maybe he just isn't a National League player. I'm kind of skeptical though, because the BOB isn't exactly a hitter's park and when Jack Wilson plays short there simply isn't as much ground to cover at third.

Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe four years of Castillo will outweigh the two we would have of Glaus (color me as unconvinced for this one, though). Maybe we can pick up one of the Jays glut of other hot cornermen with decent bats (Hillenbrand, maybe Hinske) for a much cheaper price and they'll end up being a decent solution (probably not though, Hinske sucks and the latest I've heard is Hillenbrand is off the market). Maybe Milton Bradley will go Ron Artest in Oakland and end up in jail (I wouldn't bet on it). Maybe Chris Duffy really WILL be that leadoff guy we need, maybe Casey, CWills, and Gerut WILL all be healthy and tear the cover off the ball, giving Bay the protection he needs (Pirate fans are probably the only people alive that believe this has a snowball's chance in hell of happening). Still, given where we stand now, with $13 million or so to spend on no one and a team that's only marginally better than last year's 67 win debacle, I would've taken my chances. That's why I've been so disappointed in this offseason so far. The moves we have made haven't been bad, but the moves we failed to make are the ones that would've made us a better team.

Happy Boxing Day, Jason Bay

I did it, I kept my promise to myself, I stayed away from Pirates news on Christmas eve and Christmas day in order to keep my Christmas from being ruined by Dave Littlefield signing Eric Byrnes. When I opened yesterday's PG, I stuck mostly to coverage of the Steelers 41-0 whomping of the Browns. I haven't even been online since I put that post up on Saturday morning.

Still, I'm pleased to see that the only outfielder we signed was Jody Gerut, and to a rather reasonable (if healthy) one year, $875,000 deal with a possible $75,000 in incentives at that. This also means we're down to four arbitration eligible players, Kip, Ollie, Craig, and Vogelsong.

Vogelsong himself was the subject of a Christmas day Hot-Stove Report. I was happy to see him left on the roster, as I thought he did good work out of the pen after the break last year and I know he has good stuff (you don't pitch like he did in the spring of '04 without good stuff). We certainly aren't losing anything by replacing Brian Meadows with him, that's for sure.

Merry Christmas

With Christmas being tomorrow and all, I don't plan on posting much today or tomorrow unless something really big happens (and by that I mean, unless Dave Littlefield finds a catastrophic use for his extra money). Anyways, here's wishing everyone a safe and merry Christmas and I'll be back on Monday.

Good news and bad news

Juan Encarnacion and Reggie Sanders are both headed to Missouri (St. Louis and Kansas City, respectively) keeping two more players away from Dave Littlefield's effort to sign players to start that are worse than the players we already have.

The bad news is that no one has signed Eric Byrnes yet. Rotoworld seems to think we'd be signing him to start, which is a terrifying thought, and if he's signed Craig Wilson is on his way out. If Byrnes is signed cheaply to backup/compete in right or center I think I could stomach the move. If he's signed and Craig Wilson is traded to make room for him, I think I'll probably go insane. Not that the Pirates haven't driven me to the brink of insanity before, or anything.

The hammer falls

As was widely suspected after being mentioned both by Dejan and Perrotto, the Pirates are really, truly, actually interested in Eric Byrnes. I think I might just stay away from my computer until some time Monday so that Dave Littlefield doesn't ruin my Christmas.

To re-iterate, when phrases like

Byrnes, 29, a right-handed hitter with occasional pop and plenty of fire

and

"No one plays harder, and he'll prove that again," said Sasson (Byrnes' agent)

are used, they're only used because of an absence of actual baseball ability. Let's try this once and for all,

ERIC BYRNES IS NOT GOING TO PUT ONE MORE PERSON IN THE SEATS THAN ANYONE YOU ALREADY HAVE ON YOUR TEAM WILL, NOR WILL HE HELP YOU WIN ANY MORE BASEBALL GAMES THAN THEY WILL. STOP WASTING MONEY AND RUINING CHRISTMAS, DAVE LITTLEFIELD.

Lawton's story

Today Matt Lawton tells his side of his positive steroid test. According to him, he was playing so poorly and in so much pain at the end of the year that:

I just wasn't physically able to do the job. I had never been in the playoff hunt before. So I did something that will always haunt me.

He also says he injected shortly before his failed test, which means that if he is to be believed than he wasn't on steroids while in the 'Burgh. Unlike other players that have failed tests, he's actually admitted to using, which I suppose may make his story a bit more believable. Of course, he's still out of work, which means that he had to say SOMEthing, and I do suppose a team is more likely to sign a guy who said he made a once in a lifetime mistake rather than a guy who admits he's a 'roid junkie. Still, I am impressed he actually admitted to using the steroid. At his age with the way he played last year, he could be ending his career by doing so, so whether it's the whole truth or not, it still takes some measure of balls to say what he said today.

Pitching depth and "scrappy" outfielders

If you were worried about the starting rotation after Josh Fogg was shown the door yesterday, don't be, says Dave Littlefield. After all, we just picked up Victor Santos, you know, that guy that was 4-13 on the Brewers last year and not only that, he says he'll pretend not to hate Ian Snell for just long enough that Santos can "out perform" him in the spring and win the 5th starters job. And if all else fails, former uberprospect Sean Burnett could be ready for the majors by June.

Actually, I really doubt any of those options will be worse than Fogg was last year. It's just that somehow, nothing Dave Littlefield says about anything reassures me. In reality, Dave Williams was the 5th starter that no one had any confidence in last year and he turned out OK in the long run. And it is true Sean Burnett was Zach Duke before Zach Duke made being Zach Duke cool, but we'll have to see what he does in Indy before anyone will have any idea what to expect from him this year.

In the same article, Dejan also mentions that the former apple of Dave Littlefield's eye, Eric Byrnes was non-tendered by the Orioles. If you'll recall, DL tried hard to get Byrnesy from Oakland last year, only to be rebuffed repeatedly when the price was said to be Mike Gonzalez. Byrnes, in turn, sucked hard and was dealt to Colorado, then Baltimore. He was never a great hitter before last year, but last year he was flat out awful. In Byrnes' defense, he also wore a loose fitting cap that fell off a lot when he made his unnecessary diving catches in the outfield so he could be on BBTN's Web Gems at least twice a week. Dejan describes him as "scrappy." If that's the best adjective we can come up with for him, my vote is to stay away. He primarily plays left and we kind of already have a left fielder who's pretty good, plus I can't imagine him being better than Duffy and/or McLouth would be in center and putting him in right completely defeats the whole "looking for another big bat" thing.

More good news

Sidney Ponson, fresh out of jail last week for a DWI, signed with the Cardinals today. I love it when teams in our division sign players I can make jokes about, and no one's easier to make fun of then a guy with a Jimmy Anderson physique who was a knighted Aruban citizen until he punched out an Aruban judge in a drunken rage, then came to the States, got another DWI, and now has done time in jail. Merry Christmas to all NL Central fans a couple days early (besides Cardinals fans, of course, but then again there's no rule against making fun of players on your own team).

Housekeeping

I did a bunch of updating and tidying up on the sidebar today. I added some posts to the "Start Here" column (you don't need to worry about that if you're a regular). I split all of my links into three categories, from the previous two. Now there's general links, Pirate Blogs and Fansites, and "The Enemy" (aka blogs about other teams). For anyone that's interested, the changes are below.

To "General Links" I added Baseball Musings, a great general baseball blog I've been meaning to add for some time now, and Deadspin, which is more or less exactly what it promises to be, "Sports news without access, favor, or discretion."

To "Pirate Blogs and Fansites" I added OnlyBucs.net which is a fansite that features fan written columns and a message board and Wilbur T. Miller's Pirate Player Profiles which has just about anything you want to know on any player in the Pirate organization that you can think of. I removed both Jeremy and Leeeny's blogs for no other reason than they've been inactive for quite a while and I'd like to keep the links from being unbearably long. If either of you guys start blogging again, let me know and I'll be happy to relink you.

To "The Enemy" I wanted to add at least one blog for each NL Central team, so I added The Crawfish Boxes, as Astros blog I read regularly during the playoffs, The Cub Reporter, and Al's Ramblings (a Brewers blog) in addition to what was already there. I also added another Cardinals blog, Viva El Birdos, and The Pine Tar Rag, a Royals blog.

Like I said, all of these are now in the sidebar so you can check them out from there.

Good news

Good news all around early today, first, Jacque Jones signs with the Cubs, keeping him out of DL's greedy clutches. Then the first dose of sanity in months hits the Pirates front office and Josh Fogg was non-tendered last night. I like Josh Fogg, I think he's a good guy, though it's probably due to the constant grin. Still, he hasn't been good enough to warrant what he was probably going to make in arbitration. According to Rotoworld he was the only non-tender, which means that Vogelsong got a contract in addition to all of the "sure-things" to get an offer (Wells, CWilson, Gerut, Perez). I don't know what's going on with Cota at this point, on Sunday there were seven Pirates listed in the PG as arbitration eligible,but yesterday and today's articles in the PG (which was before the Pirates announcement as to who got contact offers) there were only six listed, with Cota being left out. Either way, he's going to be a Pirate next year and probably cheaply, so it's really not that big of a deal, though he'll probably be taking a roster spot from Paulino.

The only other thing currently of note that I missed in yesterday's article about the contract offers (see the link above) is that Matt Peterson passed through waivers and reassigned by the Bucs to AAA Indy. Seeing as how Peterson has been truly awful in Black and Gold, I don't know if anyone could be surprised that he passed through waivers.

The non-tender deadline

The deadline to offer contracts to arbitration eligible players is tonight at midnight, which means the Bucs have to come to a decision on Oliver Perez, Kip Wells, Josh Fogg, Ryan Vogelsong, Craig Wilson, Humberto Cota, and Jody Gerut. Littlefield has said repeatedly he will offer a contract to all of them, though he said that earlier in the fall, then proceeded cut Ty Wigginton. Charlie has a good post up on this right now and I agree with almost all of it so I'll only give a quick version of my thoughts.

• Ollie, Kip, Craig, and Gerut should all get offers. Ollie is obvious (DL is going to Mexico to check on his progess, which has been very good to this point), Tracy and his staff like Kip and want a chance to fix him, which I think we should give them, Craig is valuable either in a right field platoon (as I've suggested) or to back-up Casey at first (great post by Rowdy yesterday on Casey's health) and Gerut will be cheap due to his very injured past and as I've suggested, if he's healthy he could be an asset.
• Josh Fogg is probably a mistake. It pains me to say it, but the guy has been bad the last couple years and won't be worth the $2 million or so he'll be making. Unless you have a trade lined up for him, don't make him an offer. We have lots of pitching and we just don't need Josh Fogg, plain and simple.
  
• Cota and Vogelsong and borderline. Both will be fairly cheap, but have their drawbacks. Cota is a question mark because of Paulino and Doumit and Vogelsong is a question mark because of his history of sucking. I like Vogelsong and I think he's capable of more than he's shown us to this point in his career, plus he had a pretty decent second half of '05 and he can't be worse than Meadows was last year, so I'd say it would be a mistake not to tender him (as the PG article suggests we might). Cota, on the other hand, was awful at the plate (I know he seemed clutch, but clutch hits must have made up all of his hits, look at his numbers last year) and another year at AAA won't do Paulino any good. I'm with Charlie on this one, we need a backup for Paulino and Doumit, but we don't need three catchers and there is a reason minor league contracts exist (so you don't trade Leo Nunez for Benito Santiago, listening, Dave?).
  

The Pittsburgh Pirate Non-Stars, pitchers version

Time for the pitchers. I appreciate everyone's feedback on yesterday's list in the comments. I'll be honest, this one was a little easier to do. I have a gut feeling that everyone might be able to agree on the pitchers a little more, but we'll see. Here goes nothing...

Starting Rotation

Kip Wells 2005- Kip has fallen a long way from his 2003 breakout season and I do hesitate to put Kip on here because I think he may bounce back, but what he did last summer cannot be ignored. Yeah, he lead the NL in losses (with 18), but he did have Roger Clemens-like run support. I'm looking more at the 5.09 ERA, the 23 gopher balls, the 99 walks in 182 innings, the 1.57(!) WHIP. Just a terrible year, not only for a guy that should've been our #2 starter, but just from a starter in general.
Fat Jimmy Anderson 2000-2002- I tried. I tried to narrow it down to Jimmy Anderson's worst year. It just wasn't possible. People talk about Pedro Martinez's first few years in Boston as the most dominant stretch by a pitcher in baseball history. Jimmy Anderson from 2000-2002 might have had the worst stretch in baseball history. In fact, Pedro and Jimmy might be complete opposites. Pedro is right handed, hard throwing, skinny, and good. Jimmy is left handed, soft tossing, fat, and awful. They do both have World Series rings from the '04 Red Sox, but that's a different story. Let's look at some numbers. He was 22-41 with a 5.24 ERA and a staggering 1.57 WHIP over that three year period. In 2001 alone he gave up 232 hits. That's not a typo. Quite possible the worst pitcher to ever regularly don a Pirates uniform and take the mound once every 5 days.
Mark Redman 2005- Let's break it down by months (record/ERA/WHIP). April- 1-2/2.78/1.16 (looking good), May- 2-2/3.43/1.07 (still solid), June- 1-2/4.01/1.35 (uh-oh...), July- 1-5/6.94/1.63 (there it goes), August- 0-3/7.63/1.75 (in flames now), September- 0-1/4.91/1.41 (good thing he got hurt). Let's all say it together now, Worst. Second. Half. Ever.
Ryan Vogelsong 2004- I like Vogelsong. I think he's gotten a pretty bad rap here and I think he could be a very good reliever. He was flat-out terrible as a starter in 2004. While somehow being allowed to make 26 starts in 31 appearences, he racked up a 6.50 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP while compiling a 6-13 record. Never, ever before has such a good spring training been prolonged into such a long and undeserved starting spot.
Pete Schourek 1999- In his only year with us, one in which we paid him $2 million, a ton of money in 1999, Schourek got beaten all over the park. I could cite all the stats, but I'm sure you all remember it. It was ugly.

The Pen

Mop-up- Ramon Martinez 2001- Ramon gets an honorary spot here for coming to Pittsburgh and saying he would help shore up our already pathetic rotation, then quitting after 4 bad starts.
RHP- Omar Olivares 2001- Just plain bad. He made some starts. He did some relief. He always sucked.
RHP- Brian Boehringer 2003-2004- Or "Blow-ringer" as I liked to call him. He parlayed a decent 2002 into a multi-year multi-million dollar contract and completely stunk up the pen for two years before blowing out his arm. Like Jimmy Anderson, I tried to pick one year, but they were both equally terrible. If you want me to be picky, I suppose 2003 was a little worse, but only because it was a full season.
LHP- Joe Beimel 2003- I know, everyone likes the guy because he went to Duquesne. Well, I go to Duquesne and this Duke gets no mercy from me. He just couldn't get guys out. How he stuck around for three years, I'll never know.
LHP- John Grabow 2004- Everyone (or at least everyone close to the team) seems to like "Grablow" and I can't figure out why. After a good start he slid nicely into the spot Beimel had left open after '03, the role of a lefty that can't get anyone out. It took Lloyd almost all year to figure out that Gonzo was better than him. He had another decent start with a terrible finish last year.
Set-up- Jose Mesa 2005- You all know about Mesa. There's only one reason he isn't the closer, and it's...
Closer- Mike Williams 2003- Seriously, whoever's idea it was to have a closer without a fastball really screwed up. And whoever had the idea to sign him after we'd already traded him away in 2001 should simply be shot. Sure, with some insane combination of smoke and mirrors he set the team saves record in 2002, but in 2003 he became the worst All-Star ever. Baseball-Reference doesn't keep blown saves as a stat, but let's just say that in '03 Mikey finished 33 games for us and only had 25 saves. He also had a 6.27 ERA and a 1.71 WHIP that year. As bad as Mesa was, I really think Williams was worse. On the plus side, just as I was vacationing in South Jerseyin 2003 he got traded to the Phillies and blew 2 games in 2 nights and drove Phillie fans insane in the process. My dad and I found it hilarious.

That closes up the list. You'll notice a lot of pitchers from 2001-2005. Maybe I just remember them better, but I looked at the numbers and they seem to bear me out on this one (good riddance, Spin). There were some tough cuts, but guys like Paul Wagner and Jeff D'Amico were really more hard-luck losers than they were bad pitchers (translation: they lost a ton of games but had ERAs under 5 and just weren't as bad as the starters that made the team, plus I remember Paul Wagner's near no-hitter).

The Pittsburgh Pirate Non-Stars, hitters version

OK, so at this point I'm getting kind of bored of writing Hot Stove posts and I'm sure everyone is getting tired of reading them. That means that I think it's the perfect time for something I've been thinking about doing since the season ended, namely trying to put together the worst 25 man roster possible of Pittsburgh Pirates from 1993-2005. I mean everyone does the "Best of" thing, everyone knows what kind of Pirates have gone on to succeed after leaving here. The question I had was who's been the absolute worst of the terrible baseball we've been watching for the last 13 years. So I fired up Baseball-Reference and put together a list. Mind you this is only one man's account of the suck-i-tude we've endured. People made the list for lots of things, failure to reach their potential, stupid things they did on the field, or being just flat out terrible. Except for one (very necessary) exception, the people that made the list as starters got significant playing time, but there was no set amount. I won't pretend I'm not biased and I know I certainly remember the past 5 years better than the previous 8, but I tried to pick a sampling from the entire era (the problem was that they weren't that bad in '93 or '94, thus no one made the team from those years). I don't expect everyone to agree with me on this, but that's what the comments are for. It's time to embrace our past, and laugh about it and at it. We'll start with the hitters today, and we'll move on to the pitchers tomorrow (because to do it all in one post would be massive). Ladies and gentleman, I give you the worst Pittsburgh Pirates, the Non-Stars, from 1993-2005.

1B- Kevin Young 2001
We watched Kevin Young play badly for a lot of years, but 2001 was the culmination of it all. He went .232/.310/.399 in '01 and played the wonderful rendition of "Kevin Young first base" where he would get to balls hit directly at him, dive for balls right next to him, miss everything else, make a couple scoops, and have Lloyd whine about how he deserved a Gold Glove.
2B- Pat Meares 2001
You can't have this team without Pat Meares. Shortly after signing with us for a reasonable sum in 1999, he suffered a debilitating hand injury and signed a 4 year, $13 million extension. He could've made the team either for this year or for his terrible 2000 year in which he spent 126 games at short. The final line in '01 was a paltry .211/.244/.304 with only 16 extra base hits and 10 walks in 280 PAs.
3B- Aramis Ramirez 2002
I'm sure this is the one that will have the most people talking. After his breakout year in 2001, Aramis got off to a hot start in April of '02 before charging the mound against the Brewers, breaking his ankle and hobbling him all season. He ended up with a .234/.279/.387 line, and his temper was part of the reason Dave Littlefield felt that he needed to deal him during the next season, making this season all the more disastrous.
SS- Mike Benjamin 1999
Can you believe we kept this guy around for three years? He was a utility guy but spent over half of the '99 season at short, going .247/.288/.364 in '99 with only one homer, but still found a way to whiff 90 times in less than 370 ABs. That and I just didn't have the heart to put scrappy little Kevin Polcovich on this team.
LF- Al Martin 1998
Like Kevin Young at first, this team just wouldn't be complete without Al Martin. His line in 1998? .239/.296/.364 with 12 homers, 47 RBIs, 20 steals, and 2 wives.
CF- Jermaine Allensworth 1997
One time I remember Tracy Morgan played Jermaine Allensworth on an SNL sketch. I don't remember what it was about and I know it wasn't funny, but I'm pretty sure it was the highlight of Allensworth's career.
RF- Derek Bell 2001
The one necessary exemption to the "regular player" rule. No "worst of" Pirate team is complete without the 2001 model of Derek Bell, the one that batted .173 and couldn't even slug .300 before getting injured amid a sea of boos during PNC's maiden year, then floating off into the sunset during the infamous "Operation Shutdown" the next spring. $9 million can't buy you much more humor.
C- Jason Kendall 2001
I didn't want to do this, but for most of the past 13 years Kendall has been our catcher. Don Slaught and Mark Parent caught from '93-'95, but weren't bad enough to merit a spot on this team. 2002 is when Kendall's power deserted him when he dropped from 10 homers to 3 and his slugging percentage continued to slide, all the way down to .356 in '02. He also batted only .283 with a .350 OBP, not terrible, but not very good for Jason Kendall.
UTIL- Abraham Nunez 2002
This was just the worst of Abe's years with us. I'm still in shock the Phillies gave him that multi-year, multi-million dollar deal.
1B2- Mark Johnson 1995
Brad Eldred worst case scenario- a right handed Mark Johnson.
OF4- Matt Lawton 2005
Sure he batted OK, but no one has ever run the bases or played right field at PNC like Matt (Law-Dog) Lawton. I don't mean that in anything that even begins to resemble a good way.
OF5- Chad Hermansen 2000
I feel bad putting the guy on here, but he symbolizes everything that's gone wrong with the Bucs in the last 13 years. Everyone had such high hopes for him and he was a complete, flat out bust. 2000 was his best shot, getting 30 some games and over 100 ABs at AAAA Pittsburgh and he was just plain pathetic.
C2- Angelo Encarnacion 1995
Again, the catcher thing is the problem. I could've put Cota here for last year, as he really had dismal numbers but I don't think he's that bad and he did come up big for us several times last year. One time around 1995 I went to a game that Encarnacion was catching and while trying to pick off a runner at first, he nailed the left handed batter in the back. Add that to the fact that he couldn't hit at all, and we have ourselves a backup backstop.

Pitchers tomorrow.

Pirates Scrabble

Found today at Baseball Musings is Humbug Journal's "Player Word Score" tool, which calculates the value of each players' name on a Scrabble board. The Pirate highlights include the lowest score in all of baseball (Ian Snell, 8) and John Van Benschoten, the second highest player without a "z" in his name at 37 (behind the Mariners Kenji Johjima at 42). Mike Gonzalez ties Johnny VB for the Pirates lead at 37, but he has two Z's in his name and that's like cheating. If you have some time to kill today, this thing will certainly help you out.

Today's Hot Stove Report

Reading Dejan's Hot Stove Report today something caught my eye. It wasn't the stuff about Freddy Sanchez (though I forgot how impressive his numbers over the last six weeks of the season were) or any of the actual baseball news. Nope, it was the fact that EIGHT Pirates will get bobblehead days next year, including first timers Zach Duke, Mike Gonzalez, Chris Duffy, and Ryan Doumit. WHAT? I thought a bobblehead commemerated something other than "rookie performances that didn't suck" which is more or less what Duffy and Doumit gave us last year. Hearing that prompted a lively discussion at the lunch table over the missed bobblehead opportunities that Pirates had if their standards were that low.

• An "Operation Shutdown" bobblehead, its head shakes twice then gets tired and stops.
• A Pat Meares bobblehead, you touch its head and his hand breaks, then asks you for $13 million.
• A Mike Fetters bobblehead because hey, it was what he looked like in the mound.
• A Matt Lawton bobblehead to simulate the way he played outfield, like a 6-year-old with ADD.
• A Chad Hermansen bobblehead, just think of the unlimited potential.
• A Neil Walker bobblehead, because he's contributed almost as much to the Pirates as Duffy and Doumit.
• Maybe the Pens should start marketing Austin Lemeiux bobbleheads.
• Seriously guys, Where's the Van Slyke Bobblehead?

Any other nominees?

Saturday stuff

Pretty slow day for baseball stuff today, but there are a couple links worth sharing. I have some ideas percolating for a post that's a little different from what I usually do, but that probably won't be ready until Monday or so, just make sure you tune in for it.

Red Hot Mama has some fake Pirate news that, unfortunately, isn't all that fake.

ESPN is really scrounging for stuff to do in the offseason, so they've turned to making fun of reader contributed trades, only to completely miss the mark on some of their comments. When asked about the probability of an Oliver Perez for Hank Blalock Swap, Jayson Stark says:

That Pittsburgh deal is a fun one to kick around. But it sure isn't happening. In case no one noticed, Oliver Perez had a 5.85 ERA this season. But the Pirates are marketing him as a No. 1 starter. So this trade breaks down right there.

Which would be true, you know, if there weren't several reports that the Rangers had told us Perez was the cost for Blalock and we told them no. Of course my source is Rotoworld and Jayson Stark has presumably actually talked to people in the know, so take that for what it's worth.

For anyone that hasn't already read the fantastic Wilbur T. Miller story about Little Davy Littlefied at OnlyBucs.net (I know Charlie linked to it a couple days ago) I strongly recommend checking it out.

At today's PG Gene Collier has his first baseball column up in quite a while, this one on the art of Hall of Fame voting. Looks like Bert Blyleven isn't getting Gene's vote. Neither is Dave Parker, who doesn't even merit a mention in the column.

Craig Wilson, Jody Gerut, and right field

Rowdy has a good post up at HW on Mr. C. Wilson, how he figures into our lineup in 2006, and just what to expect from him. If you have time I'd recommend reading all of it. I agree with Rowdy's feeling that over the last two years, Craig has demonstrated that he's probably not reliable enough to be an every day player. He was scorching hot to open 2004 but he obviously broke down by the end of the year and last year he couldn't stay healthy, though those hand injuries did seem a bit freakish. It would seem that the best current in house option in right is a Jody Gerut/Craig Wilson platoon. In a perfect world, this probably wouldn't be a bad thing. When Craig is hot he kills anything that is white with red stitches and when he's not, he still hits lefties well. Gerut, on the (literally) other hand, crushed righties to the tune of a .924 OPS in 2003 (his only completely healthy year). The problem is that this isn't a perfect world, this is Pittsburgh Pirates world. Gerut is a gigantic question mark even if that knee is healthy. Several Indians fans told me after we traded for him that after his shoulder injury he just didn't look like the same person at the plate. And that knee is a huge question. I saw him play one game in person last year and I've NEVER seen a knee brace like that on a human being before (his pants were over it and it was still clearly visible). And as for Craig, we've all seen that streakiness he's famous for. And a player that gets beaned as much as he does is constantly putting his hands and fingers in harms way, as we saw last year.

So where does that leave us? An ideal Wilson '04/Gerut '03 platoon in right would put up some pretty good numbers, but it would also count heavily on a healthy Jody Gerut as most teams don't have pitching staffs like the Pirates (that is overloaded with lefties). If there's one thing I wouldn't want to rely on on the Pirates next year, it would be Jody Gerut's health (or Kip Wells pulling it together, or Oliver Perez throwing strikes, OK, there's not much I WOULD want to rely on, honestly). There aren't really any outside options in right field at the moment, either. Kevin Mench and Craig Monroe are more or less two more Craigs (go to Craig's Baseball Reference page, scroll down and look at the similar batters; look at #2 and look at #5 on that list, Kevin Mench and Craig Monroe respectively) and Jacque Jones wouldn't be much help at all. The Milton Bradley window is closed now, probably at least partly becaused we were engaged in the Bill Mueller wild goose chase, which just turned out to be a waste of time. We already have Craig Wilson and we know what he can do when he's healthy. But we also know what he'll do over the course of a full season. We also know what a theoretically healthy Jody Gerut might be capable of (I say theoretically because of the shoulder, his injury everyone forgets about), though it's foolish to rely on that. The problem is that Craig Monroe and Kevin Mench don't give us any help there and Jacque Jones doesn't really help anywhere, especially at his cost. The ideal situation would be to trade for a guy like Adam Dunn to come play right, but the Reds don't have an outfielder situation on their hands now that we took Casey off of them (Dunn will play first). The thing is, until someone like Dunn becomes available to play right I'm just not sure any of the other talked about moves will make us better in right.

Kind of late but...

I know this is a day late, but yesterday was kind of hectic. Anyways, Roberto Hernandez was officially signed yesterday and Matt Peterson was DFA'd to make room for him on the roster, meaning that in all likelihood we will have zilch to show for Kris Benson one he's released (other than the absence of Anna Benson which, by most accounts, is probably a good thing). Peterson has been more or less awful since we traded for him, culminating with a regular beating in the AFL. As for Hernandez, well, the best we can hope for is that the change Rick Peterson made in his mechanics last year is for real and he puts up the same numbers he did last year, because we're certainly paying a lot for him. It was comforting to read in yesterday's notebook that he wasn't promised a chance to close, just "meaningful innings." Hopefully we'll have some to offer him.

Dejan's on third

Dejan looks at the third base picture sans Mueller and comes to more or less the same conclusions I did yesterday. He again drops the tantalizing name of Troy Glaus, but I just can't see that happening right now. The most interesting part of this morning's article, I thought, was the revelation that we never offered Mueller a third year, according both to Mueller's camp and to the Pirates. That's interesting for a couple reasons. First off, it means Littlefield hasn't completely lost his head yet, which is good. Second off, I think it means Mueller never had any intention of signing with us and was simply using the fact we were involved with things to try and pump up the Dodgers bid. Every time we heard something it was from "sources close to Mueller" as in "sources close to Mueller say that he's close to signing and the Pirates three year offer is the current front runner." An article from LA even said the Dodgers were dropping out because they couldn't meet the Pirates three year offer. I do believe we've been used.

The Joker

ESPN's Rumor Central (Insider only, sorry) has this to say about the Pirates third base situation:

Now that the Pirates have lost out on Bill Mueller, they plan to turn their attention to Joe Randa, ESPN Insider Jerry Crasnick reports. The Pirates view Randa as a reasonably priced, dependable veteran who will help bring some stability to a young lineup. The team would like to play current third baseman Freddy Sanchez in more of a utility role.

We can hope that this means that some kind of rationale has taken over in the front office. I'm not sure Randa has more to offer at third than Bautista, but he's a free agent and his price is certainly much more stomachable than the $4.75 million that Greg in the comments placed Bell at. I can understand wanting to give Bautista a full year at AAA, and I'm fairly certain that though the blurb on Insider has Randa lined up to start, Sanchez would take that job from him fairly quickly. You know, because he's better.

Third base options

Now that Bill Mueller has thankfully decided to avoid Pittsburgh for the next three years, that only leaves us with a few likely options at third base next year. As I see it we can either

1. Get into a bidding war with the Yankees and Indians and sign Nomar for a $12-14 million incentive laden contract over the next two years, then pray that he stays healthy and use Freddy as a utility guy.
   
2. Sign the Joker for around $1-2 million for next year, let Freddy start at third and see how things go. Freddy can shift around the infield accordingly if someone gets hurt and Randa can play third
   
3. Let Freddy start at third and have someone from within the organization like Bautista back him up.
4. Trade someone for David Bell, Freddy is the utility guy.

Option #1 doesn't seem to likely, only because I'd have thought they would've shown interest in Nomar before now if they really wanted him. It's entirely possible he wants to play either in the AL or for a contender. We don't fit either of these possibilities and if Mueller is any indication, even overpaying for him wouldn't get him here. The second option would seem to be a good one. Randa is a pretty popular guy in Pittsburgh from his last short stay and would be a pretty decent back-up at third. If not, I'm not sure anyone from the minors is ready to step up to the big leagues yet, but I guess Bautista might be. Option #4 is akin to dental surgery without novacaine.

Mueller to LA

Bill Mueller has finally come to a decision, and thankfully he's decided to head back to the West Coast to LA. This was probably foreshadowed last night when the Dodgers traded a guy who can play third base (Antonio Perez) to Oakland. Nothing against Mueller, I'm sure he's a good guy and all, but this is some good news. At his age he simply was not going to be a good fit for the price we were looking to pay him. Of course this opens the door for Littlefield to try and trade for David Bell, which would be a flat out nightmare. Someone needs to smack Littlefield on the head and try and get him to see that if Nomar isn't coming here next year, Freddy Sanchez is going to be our best option.

The waiting is the hardest part

Bill Mueller will announce his decision between the Pirates, Giants, and Dodgers sometime today, say sources close to him. That means I'll be spending the rest of the day holding my breath that after three years on the East Coast Mueller will decide he'd rather go home than take the contract Littlefield has offered him.

While we were busy

While we were busy negotiating with Bill Mueller and how much to overpay him by, the A's traded for Milton Bradley (as with just about everything else this time of year, via Rotoworld). According to the article, they are giving up an unnamed top-prospect for him. Would Grabow or Marte have been enough? Looks like they weren't, if that was the offer actually made.

Also, on the same Rotoworld page, the reason we haven't heard that the Pirates trying to sign Nomar becomes evident. The Yankees want him to play first base and finally realize Georgie's dream of an infield made up almost entirely of the "Holy Trinity" of shortstops from the late 90s. I'm guessing the Yanks jumping into the bidding is going to pump up Nomar's asking price beyond what an injury prone 30-something utility man should make. Then again, I'm not sure how that concerns a team that has already paid $2.75 million for a year of Roberto Hernandez and is looking more and more like they are going to pay $13.5 million for Bill Mueller's 35, 36, and 37 year old seasons.

From bad to worse

This is about the worst news possible (via Rotoworld). Yeah, that's right, we've asked the Phillies about David Bell. Honestly, I have no idea what's gotten into Littlefield's head at this point. Bell is terrible at this point in his career and he plays for someone else, which means we'd have to give up something to get him. Completely insane.

Meanwhile, John Perrotto reports the Pirates are very close to signing Mueller in today's BCT, while over at OnlyBucs.net Wilbur Miller uses the 2006 Bill James handbook to (among other things) give even more reasons why Bill Mueller is a bad idea:

James' projections for Freddy Sanchez were very accurate in 2005. For 2006, he projects Sanchez to hit 301/351/411, for a .762 OPS. He projects Mueller to hit 283/365/421, for a .786 OPS. Since Mueller is seven years older than Sanchez, it's reasonable to assume, if you think these projections are realistic, that Sanchez will overtake Mueller in the second or third year of a three-year deal, if Mueller signs one. Given that Sanchez has significantly more range at 3B than Mueller, would 24 points of OPS be worth $12M?

Unfortunately, it looks like we're going to find out. And in fact at this point, signing Mueller might be better than what DL will do if we don't get him. Wilbur didn't post the projections for David Bell, but I have a feeling they aren't pretty...

Slow day

For the first time in probably over a week, I can't find any new Pirates news/rumors to talk about. That's mostly a good thing, as it means we haven't signed Bill Mueller yet. Anyways, over the next couple weeks (especially after Thursday when my finals are over and done with) I'm going to try and make some changes around the site, changing the featured post list on the right over there, updating the blogroll, maybe playing around with the site template a little bit.

Added to the blogroll today are Today's Tidbits, a new Pittsburgh blog that is pretty heavily Pirates-centric, and Red Hot Mama, a Reds blog that had asked me for some opinions on Dave Williams. I had already planned on adding a couple blogs from the other NL Central teams some time over the winter, RHM just gave me a reason to jump start things a bit.

Keep your fingers crossed for the "Bill Mueller to SF" headline on ESPN today because it looks like the Dodgers are dropping out, probably due to a severe dose of sanity (via Rotoworld).

Discouraging

First we sign Hernandez to the one year $2.75 million deal.

Then we offer Bill Mueller 3 years at $4 million each, a deal that will take Mueller through the age of 38 and we will have to give up a draft pick to complete since Mueller was offered arbitration by the Red Sox.

And Tracy-ball.

Despite all the progress it seemed like we made at the Winter Meetings, I'm getting a sinking feeling in my stomach with three words swimming in my head.

Same. Old. Pirates.

The geriatric Pirates?

We have some interesting stuff in the Post-Gazette today (besides the fact that Sean Casey is a super-fantastic guy who's always wanted to be a Pirate and will probably carry us to 90 wins on his golden smile alone).

Anyways, according to Dejan, we didn't promise Hernandez he could close, but simply offered him more money than anyone else, including the Yankees. That does make me feel a little better, but it's still an awful signing given that he's really old and $2.75 million is a ton of money for a team like the Pirates to spend on a guy his age that has been very Jose Mesa-like in the last half decade minus last year. We also stepped up our quest to get older but not particularly better by offering Bill Mueller a 3 year deal. Let's face it, he might be a little better than Freddy Sanchez right now, but he'll be 38 at the end of this contract. It's a bad idea.

In the best news of the day, we're apparently stepping up our pursuit of Milton Bradley by offering Grabow or Marte. This is good news for several reasons. First off all, it's a move that nearly every single casual Pirates fan will hate. This is good because it's a sign that we aren't making moves solely to put people into the stands. Of course there's more to it than that. The guy can hit, he gets on base, he plays good outfield, and if Jim Tracy wants him back, he can't be nearly as crazy as everyone thinks. He'd be a solid top of the order bat that would definitely go a ways toward getting more people on base when Jason Bay gets up to the plate. Getting him here should be priority #1 right now (assuming Troy Glaus doesn't become magically available), ahead of Mueller and definitely ahead of Jacque Jones.

Some bad news

Rotoworld relays that WFAN in New York is reporting that we've signed Roberto Hernandez to a one year deal. Since Hernandez had two year deals from contenders, Rotoworld figures the only way he takes a one year deal with a non-contender is if we've offered him a chance to close. Seriously, we just closed the door on the Jose Mesa era. I can't believe Littlefield would actually be considering giving Hernandez a shot to close. As a set-up man at a decent price, Hernandez wouldn't be awful. As a closer, he's a giant mistake. He hasn't closed since KC in 2002 and though last year he put up a good year, his numbers were remarkably Mesa-like in the four years prior to that. After three straight days of good moves, this is pretty disappointing.

No more Mack-o-whack

Littlefield is pretty busy today, as now he's shipped Rob Mackowiak back home to Chicago for Damaso Marte, a former Bucco. I think Marte is probably better than either two names I heard earlier today, Looper and Roberto Hernandez, though I think I recall hearing that he drove the fans in Chicago nuts last year.

This means a couple things, I think. Either Littlefield really really likes Freddy Sanchez or he's close to acquiring another third baseman. Just Monday, he was talking about how he liked a platoon of Sanchez and Mackowiak at third base next year, now Mackowiak is gone. Of course he also said Wigginton was one of the guys that would get offered arbitration next year, now he's gone too.

Trading for Marte also means that John Grabow will either be non-tendered or traded somewhere, as there simply isn't room for three lefties in the pen with a rotation stacked with lefties.

According to Rotoworld, Chad Blackwell finishes off the Mark Redman trade and Clayton Hamilton completes the Bobby Hill trade. Both of them put up some decent numbers pretty low in the minors last year and I don't know much else about them. Hamilton is of note only because we drafted him in 2003 and he didn't sign, only to be picked by the Padres the next year.

As you probably know, I wasn't a big Wigginton fan. Still, dropping him kind of confuses me like the dropping of Restovich did. Why did we call him back up and watch him kill the ball at the end of last year if we were just going to drop him in the offseason? I thought the reason both of them were around at the end of the year was to get a look for next year, now they're both gone. Why did we even bother wasting roster spaces last year? I'm not complaining that they're gone because neither is very good, I just don't understand the logic behind keeping them around last year.

Bye-bye Ty

The Pirates claimed RHP Victor Santos in today's Rule 5 from the Royals and released Wigginton so that Santos could fill the roster spot. I'm not sure if this is the same Victor Santos that pitched for the Brewers the last couple years or not, but it kind of looks like he is (he's listed on ESPN right now as a Royal). No Pirates were chosen, which means Adam Boeve is still ours.

Also Jose Mesa signed with the Rockies sometime yesterday after we declined arbitration. Words fail me. I can't imagine Mesa in Colorado. Of course, if we sign Roberto Hernandez I guess it doesn't much matter that we dumped Mesa, because we will have brought him right back.

In case you were getting your hopes up...

In case you were getting your hopes up after yesterday's deal for Redman that doubled as a way to make the Casey deal better, Dave Littlefield would like to squash those hopes with the following two sentences:

Two relievers in whom the Pirates have shown a strong interest are Braden Looper and Roberto Hernandez, agent Randy Hendricks confirmed last night.

and

In addition to looking into (Craig) Monroe, the Pirates continue to discuss trading with the Red Sox for Trot Nixon or signing free agent Jacque Jones of the Minnesota Twins.

I think I feel a headache coming on. Looper and Hernandez would be black holes that just suck money from the Pirates, and while Monroe and Trot Nixon would be pretty acceptable, Jacque Jones is just about the worst idea I've heard this week this side of JT Snow.

Just a bit more on Redman

The Pirates' corner of the internet is abuzz with speculation that the PTBL in the Redman deal will be the top pick in tomorrow's Rule 5 Draft (the Royals have the top pick). Rotoworld has a Rule 5 preview and they list the most likely player to be selected as Reds 2B/3B prospect Kevin Howard, who had a pretty good year in AA then lead the AFL in hitting. If not Howard than it will probably be a pitcher. I suppose we'll have to keep an eye on this tomorrow, as will Josh Fogg and Ty Wigginton (one of whom will presumably be dropped off the roster if the Royals are swinging that pick to us, depending on who it is).

Redman's salary

The PG says that all of Redman's salary next year will be paid by the Royals. Now we're talking. At this point we've dealt Williams and Redman, who are very similar to each other to Duke and Maholm (though not nearly as good as the younger two) for Casey, a minor league reliever, and a PTBNL at a cost of about $1 million of that supposed $15 million raise in the payroll (assuming Williams makes about $1 million in arbitration next year, Casey costs $7.5 million more, which is down to $5.5 million if the Reds do chip in part of Casey's salary as expected, but without Redman's salary we're only $1 million above where we started). This means one of two things, either Littlefield has something big in mind (fingers crossed for Troy Glaus), Littlefield is going to blow all of that money on overpaying for Nomar, or McClatchy and the Nuttings hope that we get confused in everything and they pocket $15 million. I'm leaning towards scenario three.

So long Mark, you won't be missed

Mark Redman was traded to the Kansas City Royals for a minor leaguer Jonah Bayliss and a player to be named. Presumably, after being laughed at for offering Redman for guys like Brad Wilkerson and Trot Nixon, Littlefield screwed his head on straight and got anything he could for Redman. I don't know much about Bayliss, but he's alive and a baseball player, so this is probably a good trade. Now if only that player to be named could be Leo Nunez...

UPDATE (3:20PM): I did mean to say that this is really only a good deal if the Royals are paying, which I'm not really sure if they are. Bayliss had some decent minor league numbers last year and would be helpful from the pen, which is more than we can say about Mark Redman. If the Royals are paying most of the $4.5 million (and they actually might be, they're looking to add payroll, too) than this is a great deal because it almost frees up all the money we took on in Casey (assuming Cincy sends us the $2 million).

Even more about Casey

According to this morning's PG article about the Casey deal the Reds may be swinging us $2 million of his salary. That would be a very very good thing because as you may have noticed, the fact that he's a really nice guy and from Pittsburgh hasn't completely sold me that this is a good trade. It is enough for apparently about 90% of Pirates fans, however, which is a scary thing to me, mainly because it means that Charlie could be right in that the trade was made entirely to placate local fans and put more people in the seats to make the team money, but it won't make us good enough to justify spending this much money again, thus the team makes a big profit. It's also true that Casey may be a nice guy and he may be from Pittsburgh, but that doesn't make him WANT to play baseball here. Just look at this quote from Casey in the above linked article upon hearing he was traded to the Pirates:

That stinks. I want to play for the Cincinnati Reds. I don't want to go anywhere else. I love Cincinnati and the team and the fans and the charitable work I do there. But if I have to go -- and I don't want to -- Pittsburgh's definitely the best place because it's where I was born and raised.

I'm sure they caught him off guard right after he found out he was traded and his tune will change once he gets here, but the initial reaction is telling. Man, they traded me to the PIRATES? That sucks. No one wants to play there.

We'll see what Littlefield does with the rest of that $15 million, but I'm becoming less and less convinced that he's off to a good start.

A little more on Casey

Looking a little more in to things, Casey did battle a shoulder injury on and off all year from about May on last year, as you can see from this log on KFFL. Seems like the kind of nagging thing that probably messed with his power a little bit and could go a ways towards explaining his 9 home runs and his .423 SLG and makes me feel a little better about this, assuming he's healthy next year.

Looks like it's confirmed

ESPN Radio 1000 in Chicago and ESPN's Jerry Crasnick confirm that Sean Casey will be a Pirate for Dave Williams pending physicals. Let's look at this just a little bit closer, because this thing is a done deal unless some gigantic red flag goes up on Williams shoulder (which I suppose is possible).

First off, Sean Casey is overpaid. There's no doubt about it. I do think there is a certain element of this deal that was made to pacify local fans who wanted a Macha or a Howe to manage the team. And Casey does fill a need on the team, someone to play first base until Brad Eldred can do it (if he can). Casey is also probably more likely to sign here after his contract is up than someone like Overbay if Eldred doesn't step up.

And yeah, Casey can get to first base, and he does it pretty often. The question is how he will go about getting there. If 2004 Sean Casey comes along, we just made a great deal. If 2002, 2003 or 2005 Casey shows up, I'm not so sure. We should also keep in mind that if Eldred goes crazy in AAA and Casey hits well, we can move him somewhere else in July next year, maybe for something substiantially more than Dave Williams.

The danger, of course, is that he doesn't hit (or that Littlefield is trying to pawn an injured Dave Williams off on someone, which wouldn't shock me). I know he's had some injury problems but I don't know enough about them to say if any of his recent three bad years was caused by them (because he had a decent amount of at-bats in most of them). The problem here is that last year's edition of Sean Casey was essentially *gulp*Daryle Ward that got on base more. Ward actually slugged higher than Casey, and hit more homers with more RBIs in less at-bats. That's terrifying considering how much Casey is making and how flat out awful Ward was after June last year. It would be spending half of the much talked about $15 million on Daryle Ward. Not a pretty site.

There's also the possibility (very slight) that we deal Casey for someone else. This would shock me as I think trading for Casey was as much PR as anything, but my friend from Boston told me that the Sox message boards were talking about a possible Casey to Boston with Wells for Nixon and a prospect. I'm more or less going to rule that out unless I hear it from somewhere else, but I suppose it's a possibility.

The bottom line is that this deal could really go either way for the Bucs. It's possible that a healthy Casey will be rejuvenated by coming back home and seeing the short wall in right, and that Brad Eldred will take this move personally and make himself into a better player. It's also possible that Sean Casey will make us pine for the Daryle Ward era. Let's just say I'll be rooting for scenario #1, but if scenario #2 happens, don't say we couldn't have seen it coming.

Casey close to coming home

The PG reports that the Pirates are close to finishing up a deal that would send Dave Williams to Cincinnati for Sean Casey. I said earlier that Casey is making way more than he's worth and I do still feel that way but I suppose if you take money out of the equation (which is hard to do for the Pirates) it's not a bad trade. Casey's numbers may be down a bit from where they were but he's also going to give Jason Bay a lot more protection than anyone we had last year. It also puts Brad Eldred on direct notice that if he's not going to start putting the bat on the ball he's not going to play in Pittsburgh. Plus, he's not JT Snow, which is absolutely fantastic. I guess the bottom line is that this is a trade that could work out fairly well for the Pirates, despite the large amount of money involved. I'll probably have more about this later when it all gets finalized.

Sensory overload

OK, seriously, I can barely keep up with every single name that I've heard tossed around since about midnight last night (I wanted to get a post up before now but things like "sleep" and "class" got in the way). Anyways, I'll try and take a look at the rumors I've heard so far and what I think about them.

• Sign Olmedo Saenz- This really isn't too terrible of an idea. In about 100 less at-bats he hit as many homers and had as many RBIs as Daryle Ward. As long as we're looking to him as a back-up at first or a platoon with Craig Wilson until Eldred is ready, this wouldn't be a bad move. We just have to keep in mind that he isn't a starter (something we could never figure out with the D-Train).
• Trade for Milton Bradley (same link as above)- Also a pretty good idea. Bradley has quite a rep as a troublemaker, but I can't imagine a manager like Tracy would OK Littlefield to look for a trade for Bradley if he really thought there was a problem with him (unless he didn't give DL the OK, but given Bradley's history and Tracy's preexisting relationship with him I'd find that hard to believe, still, we are the Pirates). He's got some pop, he gets on base a lot, and he's a good outfielder. The thinking is he might be cheap given his past problems. Still, signs are pointing to him going to Oakland for Zito. If that's true it means that even if Oakland doesn't take him, the price tag is going to be more significant than originally thought.
• Pirates extend 2-year offer to Bill Mueller- This is a bad idea. He may be slightly better than Sanchez or a Sanchez/Mackowiak platoon, but we're the Pirates and the slight upgrade he may (or may not) offer isn't worth it. He's not a high upside like Nomar, if anything he's getting older and losing a little bit. Signing Mueller wouldn't make a whole ton of sense.
• Trade for Sean Casey- It would just be pandering to the masses to trade for the Upper St. Claire native, in my opinion. He hit 9 homers in a hitter's ballpark last year and besides 2004 his recent slugging numbers look pretty paltry for a guy making $8 million a year.
• Kip Wells or Mark Redman for Trot Nixon (via Rotoworld)- Not a bad idea. Nixon murders right handed pitching and would probably love the short right field porch. True, he's incredibly injury prone but he would be useful in a platoon in right with Craig Wilson, again assuming we realize he's not an every day player and he would be a fantastic return for Mark Redman, and probably not an awful one for Kip Wells.
  
• Jason Michaels for Mark Redman (again via Rotoworld)- Seriously, one of those sweet Calvin and Hobbes snowmen and maybe some change to order a pizza with would be a decent return for Mark Redman. All this talk of getting real baseball players for him is making me positively giddy.
• Pirates extend offer to JT Snow (Rotoworld once more)- Certifiably insane. He's old and he can't hit worth crap. Any of the other first base options previously discussed (a Saenz/Wilson platoon, trading for Lyle Overbay or Sean Casey, watching Eldred strike out a zillion times next year) are better than this one. This would be like lighting money on fire for a team like the Pirates.
  

Sorry

Sorry everyone, but it seems that from the looks of things Blogger was having some problems from around 6 PM until now, 11:30ish, which kept people from accessing the site. I don't really know what the deal was, but it was nothing that they let anyone know about ahead of time.

Nomar update

According to Buster Olney's blog (ESPN insider only, sorry) the Yankees have entered bidding for Nomar, just about ensuring that he will be paid astronomically this offseason. It think it'd be best if DL got Nomar off the brain before he does something stupid.

Prospects

Taking a step back from the Hot Stove for a second, John Sickels looks back at the 20 guys he had listed as our preseason Top 20 and how they fared in 2005. At the top was Zach Duke, who obviously exceeded expectations. As for the rest of the top 20, well it seems like mostly everyone fared just about as expected with some of the bottom guys (Sharpless, Bullington, Paulino) exceeding preseason expectations, leading Sickels to say that he feels that we have some sleepers in the minors and maybe our farm isn't as barren as everyone thinks.

I'm not exactly sure why I think you guys care. The SiteMeter went berserk in the 2 hours after I did the Anna Benson post so it's pretty obvious what everyone wants. Maybe I should mention that while looking at the Baseball America Rule 5 list the other day I saw Casey Daigle on the list. Who's Casey Daigle you ask? Why, the one and only Jenny Finch's husband, if course. Let's see, he's a right handed reliever with some decent potential, she's incredibly hot, athletic, and SANE. See ya later Josh Fogg, it was nice while it lasted. Now to find out where her seats will be...

More Anna Benson

UPDATE (12/16): Not sure how this happened, but apparently my little blog here has turned up on the first page of Google search results for "Anna Benson" and it's pointing a whole ton of new people to WHYGAVS. Anyways, I'd encourge anyone who's found this blog via that manner to click around and check things out, especially if they happen to be a Pirates fan. Of course, if you don't want to, that's fine too. Just don't expect to find any pictures of Ms. Benson here.

Well, this is just fantastic. Anna Benson is now attacking the Mets because she thinks they are trying to trade her husband because she wants to pose in Playboy (something also alleged by Peter Gammons). Of course Anna is less than pleased by the whole incident. Kris, meanwhile, hasn't commented on the situation, presumably because he's locked in a basement somewhere with testicle clamps on. You know, as much as I make fun of the guy I'm really starting to feel bad for him.

Let the games begin

The Winter Meetings in Dallas kick off today (as if you didn't know that already) and let's face it, everyone needs something to think of besides the fact that the Bengals are going to win the AFC North. Dejan obliges with his Winter Meetings preview, which doesn't really tell us a whole lot we didn't know. Of course the subject of third base comes up (painfully pointing out the difference between Jose Hernandez/Chris Stynes/Rob Mackowiak/Ty Wigginton/Freddy Sanchez and Aramis Ramirez. Since third base is more or less a wasteland at free agency this year (Mueller and Randa don't offer more than a Sanchez/Mackowiak rotation at third and I'm guessing the Pirates will have to seriously overpay for Nomar which isn't something I really would agree with) the topic of a trade comes up and a new name emerges in this article, Troy Glaus. Hmmm, now there's an intriguing possibility. Glaus is due $34 million over the next three years but is three years younger than Nomar. His numbers last year suggest that he's healthy after some serious shoulder problems. Arizona is mostly looking to dump his contract (says KFFL via the Bucs Dugout) so he might not come as costly (in terms of what we need to give up) as he otherwise would. Glaus would really be an intriguing target to go after. If Nomar's price soars, Glaus would only cost a bit more than that and may be a safer bet. He also doesn't have the drastic home/away split questions that Blalock does. If the D'Backs are looking to dump payroll, he also may come cheaper than Oliver Perez. I'd say if Glaus is on the market he's definitely worth a long, hard look.

It also seems that the Pirates are still searching for first basemen or outfielders. Of the mentioned names a bunch of Reds come up though I'd think that only Pena and maybe Dunn are really worth a second looks (Kearns and Griffey get injured a ton, Casey doesn't afford much of an answer at first for the price tage). Other names mentioned are Kevin Mench (who would be more of the same from the Pirates as far as I'm concerned) and Overbay (see Sean Casey).

I guess we'll just have to wait and see what kind of rumors come out of Dallas today before there can be much more speculation.

The Sunday update

Lots of stuff going on today. Dejan logs his first Hot Stove Report, which isn't much of a hot stove report at all because it deals mostly with Yurendell DeCaster and the massive strides he's made to earn a spot on the 40-man this year. He also touches on the work Perez will do in the Mexican league this winter (30-35 innings) before the World Baseball Classic (he's pitching for Mexico). It would appear that everyone's injury rehab is going well, Burnett and Van Benschoten may throw at the January mini-camp, Castillo and Duffy should be ready for camp. Of course the injuries that aren't going well, like Bullington's, were failed to be mentioned. There was also this:

Reliever Rick White, the lone surprise of the four veterans the Pirates cut loose last month, said he believes he is a few days away from signing with the New York Yankees or Boston Red Sox. White said Pirates general manager Dave Littlefield's lone offer to return was for the same terms as last year, a minor-league invitation and a $475,000 salary if he makes the 25-man roster. "They basically blew me off," White said.

That made me feel all warm and fuzzy inside.

The second item today was about the Pirates actually having money to spend this offseason. Dejan talks about how we contact Brian Giles agent and were basically told to do something rude to ourselves that starts with the letter "F" because Brian wants to play for a contender. Dejan also repeats the believed interest the Pirates interest in Nomar (good) and Jacque Jones (bad). Dejan believes Littlefield and McClatchy are very serious about spending money this offseason unlike the last when $4 million went unspent when Jeromy Burnitz signed elsewhere. The problem, of course, is getting people to want to come here. As I previously mentioned, the Orioles and Indians are already interested in Nomar and with Fucal signing in LA you can probably add the Braves to that list. That's how free agents that should make around $5 million a year end up making $8-10 million. And how teams like the Pirates get hurt in the long run.

Finally, some kind of award

After being ignored by the baseball writers Jason Bay has been honored by his countrymen as the best Canadian player in the bigs, the second straight year he's taken home the Tip O'Neill award. There really wasn't much competition with Gagne injured though. Ryan Dempster finished second. That only puts him seven behind Larry Walker in the all-time standings.

"It's obviously nice to be recognized by your country," said Bay. "Most Canadians are very patriotic, and I'm no different."

Now that's what I'm talking aboot.

This is how it starts...

Now even our top non-pitching prospects are finding ways to get hurt.

The offseason thus far and beyond

Today is December 2nd, that means that among other things, we're two full months into the offseason. So how have the Bucs done so far? What should they do in the future? Let's take a look.

Things we've done so far
Well, first and foremost, we've hired a manager. Of course we can't really judge Tracy until we've seen games played, but there have been both good and bad things said about him. I will say that seeing Ozzie Guillen and Phil Garner manage teams into the World Series made me feel a little better about Tracy. If he can fix the "culture of losing", keep the mood in the clubhouse light, improve communication between the players and the manager's office, and have faith in his players, things will be improved over the McClendon era. His coaching staff has no resemblence to McClendon's (which is a good thing) and only one person is even from the organization, Manto (probably the weakest link).

We also got Jason Bay's contract for next year and his arbitration years taken care of. 4 years, $18 million, a good price to take care of the three spot in our lineup for the next 4 years. Some people wanted a fifth year team option included, but that probably would've come at a steep price. We've got four years to figure everything out after the end of this contract.

We signed a bunch of old relievers to minor league contracts. The only one of consequence is probably Scott Strickland who was good at one point in his career, but has only pitched in 5 games over the last two years after having his elbow reconstructed. The good news is that all 5 games were last year and there's a chance he'll be healthy next year.

The biggest problem thus far is that Dave Littlefield's head as grown exponentially. I'm actually surprised he hasn't started referring to himself in the third person yet. He absolutely believes that he is a genius for the Jason Bay contract, something he's done to prove he's committed to building a winning baseball team. In reality, he did something that made sense, kind of a rarity in these parts. Someone (here's looking at you Dave) started a rumor that the Red Sox were interested in him, being a New England native and all. They still haven't called. He also casually mentioned that he was interested in acquiring Josh Beckett. Guess what Dave, so were the Washington Wild Things, if anyone would've asked them. Doesn't mean it was going to happen.

Things we might do, or should do, or at least will think about doing
We're probably going to keep looking for a third baseman. Hank Blalock was available, but only for Oliver Perez. We declined there and I can't blame us for doing that. Blalock could certainly be the guy we're looking for at third, but his numbers haven't improved since 2003 (slugging and OPS down every year since then) and there's no evidence he's going to hit well without making his home in comfy Ameriquest field. Perez is too steep a price for Blalock.

That being said, I don't think Perez is off limits this offseason. Duke is off limits, Maholm is off limits, Burnett is probably off limits. Perez, Gorzelanny, Snell, Van Benschoten, Williams and of course Wells, Redman, and Fogg are all pitchers I would consider dealing if I was DL. There haven't been many deals discussed so far, but everyone knows the Reds have outfielders and we have pitching, and we each need the opposite. Instead of creating rumors here, however, I'd much rather just comment on them as they pop up.

Speaking of rumors, the biggest one so far to hit Pittsburgh is about Nomar Garciaparra coming to play third base for the Bucs next year. Of course the Trib is kind of like the Ministry of Truth at this point with the deal they struck with the Pirates. Still, Nomar is probably a good fit for the Pirates. Assuming he'd stay healthy (a big assumption but hey, even a blind squirrell finds a nut once in a while) he'd play a good third base for us and be a middle of the order bat that we badly need. He made $8 million for one year with the Cubbies last year and shouldn't make more than that this year. The problem is that so many teams are interested we may have to overpay for Nomar to end up here, something I wouldn't recommend doing. (ESPN's rumor mill lists the Orioles and Indians as suitors while Rotoworld says that the A's, Braves, Twins, and D'Backs shouldn't be ruled out). With that kind of interest, I just can't see a free agent like Nomar ending up in the 'Burgh. Assuming he does, that opens up some more trade options for us. Between Jack Wilson, Jose Castillo, and Freddy Sanchez we have three players that are good enough to start at second or short (yes, Sanchez is good enough to start) and we won't need to use one at third. With all of the middle infielders on the 40-man, we could definitely deal one of these three.

That leads us to the outfield. Jason Bay is entrenched in left and better not be moved for anything. Chris Duffy will start the year in center and will probably fight for time with McLouth, both who deserve a chance at the big league level. That leads to right field, where our current options are Craig Wilson, Jody Gerut, and maybe McLouth if he really impresses in camp. Gerut is not an answer as a right fielder, plain and simple. I've never seen a bigger knee brace on a human being than the one he had on last year. He's never been the same since the injuries have started, and he wasn't that great to start with. As for Wilson, I still think he deserves at least a chance to play every day. He's definitely an on-base machine, which makes up for his strikeouts. The question is whether his absence of power last year was due to never getting into a real groove with all his hand injuries or whether it was something more... chemically related. If he can hit like he did in 2004 he should probably play mostly every day. If not, well, a slow, lead gloved right fielder/first baseman with no power isn't of much use to anyone, no matter how much he gets on base. I've seen the Pirates name connected to Jacque Jones (again, ESPN rumor mill, which is curious because I've read nothing of the sort in the local papers, that could mean something or it could mean nothing) but I really don't know how much Jones has to offer us here. Earlier in the offseason Wily Mo Pena was mentioned as a potential trade target, a solution I would be more amicable towards. I guess this is a position to keep an eye on.

The final position in question is first base. Eldred mashed some monster homers while he was up in August and September but not much else. He wasn't particularly fantastic in the AFL (his numbers weren't bad but it's definitely a hitter friendly league). I'd still give him the benefit of the doubt at first base. He took a while to adjust at every level in the minors, but eventually hit everywhere he went. He at least deserves a chance to show that he won't do that in Pittsburgh before we give up on him. If he doesn't hit, Craig Wilson can fill in at first (where he's less of a liability than in right) or we could sign or trade for someone. Lyle Overbay's name has come up quite a bit, but I don't think he's enough of a solution to warrant trading what the Brewers will ask for. Again, this is one to keep an eye on as Littlefield will probably try to do something here in the next couple months.

The real question is what Littlefield will actually do in the offseason. He seems pretty desperate to fill out a $50 million payroll for 2006 and prove to the world he's as great of a GM as he thinks he is. The problem is, desperate GMs do stupid things. Nomar isn't worth it for 3 years at $8-10 million, trading Oliver Perez for Lyle Overbay doesn't help us get better. A $50 million payroll is completely worthless if the money isn't spent right, just ask anyone that watched the 2001 Pirates. I can't say for sure Littlefield will do these things, but we're going to get a real good idea within the next week here.